Battleground Republicans are pouring money into ads that stake out defensive positions meant to neutralize one of Democrats’ most powerful issues: abortion.
About a dozen GOP candidates in competitive House races, particularly in blue-leaning districts, have already aired broadcast TV ads this fall outlining their position on abortion, according to data from AdImpact, a firm that tracks advertising, with that number likely to grow as the election nears. In 2022, only three such Republicans aired similar ads.
And unlike the vague language about “women’s health care” that some employed in the past, Republicans are taking a more direct and personal approach now, explicitly addressing the topic of abortion and saying they support access. Most of the ads are direct to camera.
Several of the new ads depict Republican candidates vowing to oppose a national abortion ban. Some talk about IVF and birth control, others about health care or women’s choices broadly. One Republican challenger goes so far as to brand himself as “pro-choice.”
“I trust women. I cherish new life,” Rep. Juan Ciscomani of Arizona says in one ad.
“Let me be clear, I will never support a national abortion ban,” New York Rep. Mike Lawler says in one of his.
“Demonizing women over health care choices isn’t right,” says an ad from Rob Mercuri, who is challenging Democratic Rep. Chris Deluzio in Pennsylvania.
Republicans know there’s a large trust gap with voters for their party on the issue. Democrats have been hammering them since the fall of Roe v. Wade in 2022, powering a string of victories on the left. Republicans were caught off guard that year — and they largely ignored the onslaught of Democratic attacks as they barely captured the majority in a cycle they expected to be a red wave.
The shift in strategy is a clear sign Republicans know that abortion is important to voters and could sway elections, and some Republican strategists say allowing Democrats to define the issue unchallenged had been a mistake.
“The fact is that the landscape has changed so much,” said Rep. Marc Molinaro (R-N.Y.), who released an abortion rights-focused ad last month. “I just wanted to be very clear. And no third-party voice, me looking at the camera, explaining to women and to the people I represent, this is what I believe. This is a decision that should be left to you and your physician.”
Their opponents scoff at the ads as hollow lip service that directly conflicts with the congressional voting records they logged over the last two years. And why would voters believe Republicans on abortion rights when so many prominent members of their party oppose them and contributed to the fall of Roe?
But how well the battleground candidates can distance themselves from hardline GOP positions opposing abortion and blunt the Democratic attacks will help shape the outcomes of their races — and the fight for control of Congress.
“The reality is you have to explain to voters, especially when the Democrats’ whole campaign strategy is to lie about swing-district Republicans on this issue,” Lawler said. “You have to be able to present it to voters unfiltered, in your own voice.”
In a sign of how serious Republicans are about this message, they are airing broadcast TV ads in large markets like New York City. In 2022, some candidates, such as Lawler, ran abortion-focused ads on cable “very targeted to pro choice women.”
So far, nearly all of the Republican abortion ads on broadcast TV have come from seats that President Joe Biden carried in 2020, including in Pennsylvania, Oregon and California.
During the midterms, GOP party leaders urged candidates to resist responding to the Democratic abortion ads and stay focused on an economic message. Abortion was consistently polling as less important to voters in swing districts than inflation or the economy.
But then Republicans performed far worse than expected. Despite being heavily favored, they only picked up enough seats to scrape together a narrow majority — and abortion was widely seen as driving key Democratic victories.
That election and successful abortion rights-related ballot initiatives in red states convinced party leaders they could no longer ignore the issue.
Much of their polling on the importance of abortion rights in swing districts hasn’t actually changed drastically since the midterms, but Republicans aren’t basing their blueprint off it anymore.
“The polls weren’t picking up how important it was,” said one House GOP leadership aide, granted anonymity to discuss private data. “Republicans learned their lesson last cycle and are trying to do everything they can to avoid Democrats weaponizing that issue to the max.”
It’s a lesson for Republicans up and down the ballot, from former President Donald Trump — who has tried to walk a delicate balance on the issue to avoid angering his base and win over moderate voters — down to state and local candidates.
In 2022, Republican Senate hopefuls in at least four competitive races cut broadcast ads on the issue — sometimes flanked by their wives or daughters. In Colorado, Republican Joe O’Dea even declared himself a “pro-choice” candidate. This year, Republican Senate candidates Larry Hogan in Maryland, Sam Brown in Nevada and Dave McCormick in Pennsylvania are among those airing ads touting their support for abortion rights.
The National Republican Congressional Committee sent a memo to candidates earlier this year urging them to stake out a clear position on abortion. But even the party’s own strategists acknowledged that many voters are predisposed to associate the party with a strict ban on abortion.
Democrats are ready to weaponize that assumption — and have been adapting their response as Republicans shift strategies, dropping ads to counter the GOP’s messaging with specific references to votes or positions the Republican candidates previously took.
House Majority PAC, Democrats’ top outside group dedicated to congressional races, conducted polling in battleground races and found that “a majority of voters don’t find” Republicans’ “false claims about their abortion records to be credible,” according to a late September memo obtained by POLITICO.
In Lawler’s suburban New York City district, the group found that 57 percent of likely voters had serious doubts about the congressman’s record on abortion. In GOP Rep. Brandon Williams’ upstate New York district, that number was 74 percent. In Ciscomani’s Tucson-based district, 60 percent of likely voters had serious doubts and 40 percent believe it’s “the best reason” to vote against him.
“He claims that he trusts women,” said Kirsten Engel, the Democrat challenging Ciscomani. “Then why has he been voting repeatedly to restrict abortion while he’s been in Congress? I think his record does not match his current statements.”
The House Democratic campaign arm is running an ad in Arizona using Ciscomani’s past votes: “Juan Ciscomani can say what he wants. But his record speaks for itself.”
House Majority PAC’s findings were particularly stark in Molinaro’s district in upstate New York, where 85 percent of likely voters believed he would not oppose a national abortion ban. That survey was conducted after Molinaro began airing his ad on TV where he said he kept his promise to oppose a ban.
Josh Riley, the Democrat challenging Molinaro, released a spot warning voters that the incumbent voted against abortion rights 13 times.
“Marc Molinaro doesn’t respect you enough to be honest,” a narrator says in the ad.
