- U.S. BTC reserve uncertainty capped BTC’s recent upswing.
- Options market suggested extended price swings for the next 48 hours.
Bitcoin [BTC] recorded gappy moves during the inauguration day, tapping a new high of $109.5K before reversing to $100K.
The market appeared cautiously optimistic post-inauguration, with BTC Options analyst Tony Stewart flagging expected volatility for the January 21st expiry. He stated,
“BTC 21st Jan expiry in 12 hours still pricing 100%. Indicates that the inauguration speech wasn’t the focal point. Market is still cautious of/expecting volatility.”
Source: Amberdata
The attached chart indicated that the Mark IV (Implied Volatility) was nearly 100% for the 21st of January Option expiry. This revealed increased uncertainty and potential price swings after the inauguration event.
At the time of writing, however, the IV had dropped to 71%, while Wednesday Options expiry had the highest IV at 77%. This signaled expected potential price swings in the next 48 hours.
Source: Ambderdata
It’s worth pointing out that despite the uncertainty, there was a premium for call options (bullish bets), as indicated by the positive 25-Delta Risk Reversal (25RR).
U.S. Bitcoin reserve uncertainty
Perhaps the market jitters were triggered by crypto missing from President Trump’s first-day executive orders.
Just hours before the event, Polymarket’s odds of U.S. BTC reserve in the first 100 days shot to 48%, driving BTC’s price to a record high of $109K.
However, the chances dropped to 32% afterward as it became clear that crypto was not a priority, at least on the first day in office.
Source: Polymarket
One of the insiders, Bitcoin Magazine’s David Bailey, speculated that an executive order for a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR) could be likely within 100 days. Still, according to him, the legislative framework could extend until the mid-term elections.
Source: X
The BTC price dropped below $108K but remained above key moving averages near $100K, signaling strength despite U.S. SBR uncertainty. A breach below the averages could drag BTC to $94K or range-lows at $90K.
However, a strong upswing could make $120K reachable, especially with positive updates on U.S. SBR prospects.
Source: BTC/USDT, TradingView
