Are Ethereum ETFs the trigger for altcoin season? Experts weigh in!

  • ETH/BTC has recovered higher as analysts forecast an altseason could be likely. 
  • However, the altcoin market showed varied performance and might not rally uniformly. 

Altcoin season calls have increased recently, and the Ethereum [ETH] ETFs have intensified the calls. As the leader in the altcoin market, ETH’s upside denotes the barometer of the altcoin season per most analysts. 

According to Crypto Nova, a pseudonymous crypto analyst, the ETH/BTC ratio was about to explode and would rally altcoins. 

“Always when ETH/BTC went up, the entire altcoin market did. And that looks to be happening pretty soon.’ 

Another analyst, Michael van de Poppe, echoed Nova’s projection and stated, 

‘As long as #Ethereum stays above 0.05 BTC, a new trend has started: Upwards.’


Source: X/de Poppe

For the unfamiliar, the ETH/BTC tracks ETH performance relative to BTC. As of press time, the ETH/BTC ratio stood at 0.055, meaning that one ETH was worth around 0.055 BTC. 

A jump in the ratio’s value will suggest ETH’s positive performance and possibly an altcoin season. However, a dip in the value will denote ETH’s underperformance relative to BTC. 

The ETH/BTC ratio has surged due to ETH ETF speculation. The value could increase if the spot ETH ETF launches and starts trading, boosting the rest of the altcoin market. 

Altseason wasn’t in yet

However, another key alt-season indicator, the Altcoin Season Index, had a 37 reading, which signaled that the season wasn’t in yet. Notably, the Altcoin Season Index signals an altseason if 75% of altcoins outperform BTC in the past 90 days. 

However, it is worth noting that some altcoins have recorded exemplary results during the bull while others struggled.

Meme coins have been outliers, with Pepe [PEPE] consistently printing record highs recently. On a year-to-date performance, PEPE was up +950%, and dogwifhat [WIF] jumped +120% over the same period. 

However, other altcoins have trailed the rest, with Ethereum L2s adversely underperforming. According to Deribit’s recent commentary

“OP, MATIC, and ARB are down 33%, 26%, and 24% respectively. That means that 1 ETH invested in OP at the beginning of the year is only worth 0.4 ETH today. This underperformance is not just due to the ETH ETF, or due to a broader altcoin underperformance’ 

The Deribit report mentioned that the oversupply of token unlocks could be one reason for L2’s muted performance. 

‘‘$82m of OP unlocks hit the market; the week before there was nearly the same amount of ARB’

On alternate L1s, performance was varied with ‘some L1s are outperforming (TON +197%, NEAR +97%), while others, like APT and AVAX, are underperforming.’

So, a potential surge in the ETH/BTC ratio might not necessarily boost all altcoins; it could be selective. 

Next: Bitcoin, Ethereum exchange balances at record lows – What now?

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