Analyzing Toncoin’s weekly decline: Is a bigger drop coming?


  • TON declined by 3.75% over the past 7 days.
  • Defying recent trend on monthly charts, Toncoin is positioned for further decline in short term.

While Bitcoin [BTC] and most altcoins have made moderate gains on monthly chats, Toncoin [TON] has followed a different path. As such, TON has experienced a sharp decline over the past month.

In fact, as of this writing, Toncoin was trading at $5.11. This marked a 2.19% decline over the past day. On monthly charts, TON has declined by 1.91% with an extension to the bearish trend by 3.75% over the past week.

These market conditions have left analysts deliberating on TON’s future trajectory. One of them is the popular crypto analyst Dark Knight who suggested TON needs a strong bounce to regain a bullish momentum.

What market sentiment says

In his analysis, Dark Knight posited that TON remains range round between $5.1 and $5.9. Despite the recent gains by BTC that usually inspire altcoins to surge, TON has failed to do so.

ton

Source: X

As such, the altcoin has failed to break above-significant resistance levels. Despite these price movements, the analyst argued that TON’s long-term prospects are promising especially because of the increased adoption of the Toncoin blockchain.

Therefore, based on this analogy, TON faces a short-term bearish trend. As such, if the price dips below the key support, it will decline further to the next critical support at $4.4.

Significantly, for the altcoin to experience any bullish outlook, a strong bounce is needed.

What TON charts show…

While the analysis provided by the analysts provides a pessimistic outlook, it’s essential to determine what other fundamentals say.

ton

Source: Santiment

For starters, Toncoin’s exchange on supply has increased over the past week. Usually, a rise in supply on exchange implies investors are sending their assets into exchanges where they can easily sell.

This signals that investors expect Toncoin prices to decline and are looking to take profit.

tonoutside

Source: Santiment

Additionally, Toncoin’s supply outside of exchange has been declining over the past month from a high of $10.11 million to $9.9 million. This indicates investors are moving away from long-term holding and are looking to liquidate their positions.

ITB ton large holders inflow ethereum 2024 10 10T07 10 45.480Z

Source: IntoTheBlock

Finally, Toncoin’s Large holder’s inflow has declined from a high of 291.45k to 61.54k. This suggests that large holders are reducing their funds inflow. When large holders reduce their funds flow, it implies they lack confidence in the prospects of the altcoin.


Read Toncoin (TON) Price Prediction 2024-25


Simply put, TON is experiencing a strong downtrend and bearish sentiment continues to dominate. Therefore, if the current market conditions hold, Toncoin will find its next support around $4.60.

However, a market correction with a strong bounce would push TON up towards $5.84.

Next: Ethereum: What MVRV momentum tells you about ETH’s 2025 targets



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