As Election Day finally arrives, election officials, legal experts and researchers are bracing for a flood of disinformation and legal claims as vote counting begins.
The final week of the campaign featured three dynamics that could lead to a protracted legal dispute if the results are close, legal experts said.
Scores of lawsuits—many of them frivolous—have already been filed, domestic and foreign actors are spreading false accounts of voter fraud, and former President Donald Trump continues to claim that the election will be rigged against him.
“They’ve already started cheating,” Trump said Sunday at a rally in Allentown, Pennsylvania.
Election experts say that if a clear winner emerges quickly and voting proceeds without major disruptions, large numbers of Americans may have faith in the results. But they warned that delays in the counting or a tight race in which a single state decides the presidency could lead to a divisive legal battle.
The longer the race remains unresolved, experts predicted, the more time domestic and foreign actors will have to spread disinformation that will sow doubt, discord and division over the results.
Danielle Tomson, research manager at the University of Washington’s Center for an Informed Public, predicted an increase in rumors on Election Day “as more people go to the polls and encounter both real and perceived problems with voting.”
“The problem is when political actors or influencers take one real problem,” Tomson said, “and misleadingly exaggerate its impact or scope to indicate some larger coordinate fraud or mass conspiracy.”
“We expect to see a huge focus on swing states, voting machines and voter eligibility,” she said.
Arizona elections worker Jennifer Liewer said she and her co-workers are prepared for the vote and any potential disruptions.
“The reality is that we do have security personnel who are monitoring, to make sure if there are threats… appropriate people are aware of them,” said Liewer, Maricopa County’s deputy elections director.
But she acknowledged she and her co-workers have no idea how the final chapter of the 2024 election will unfold.
“We don’t know what will happen once results begin to get posted, and how people will react,” she said. “We hope that they will have trust in the system.”
A flood of disinformation and legal claims
In Seattle, 25 researchers at the Center for an Informed Public will work in shifts to document rumors as they arise on Election Day and beyond. It is one of a few large-scale academic projects still studying election disinformation — several prominent others shuttered or were weakened in response to a conservative attack on such research.
In published primers, the researchers have said to expect a steady stream of rumors throughout the day — potentially hundreds of videos, photos and statements purporting to capture suspected irregularities, conspiracy theories or concerns Trump and his allies may present as evidence of voter fraud.
Already, this election season has been shaped by online content alleging voting machine malfunctioning, unfair ballot ordering and noncitizens’ illegally voting, as well as false conspiracy claims involving the news media and other viral videos that have had to be debunked by election officials, secretaries of state and federal agencies.
Conservative groups pushing election conspiracy theories have also signaled their intention to paint any irregularities or routine processes as fraud, like longer count times in states that don’t allow workers to pre-process mail-in or absentee ballots.
A misleading advertisement from the Election Integrity Network says “The Glitch Is In” alongside a carousel of news coverage of such procedural Election Day issues. The Election Integrity Network’s founder, Cleta Mitchell, promotes her thousand-strong group as a kind of “national neighborhood watch.”
Researchers also point to a new kind of infrastructure around documenting and sharing such rumors on Election Day. Whereas in years past, they were more likely to appear organically on social media platforms, this year, official channels have been built to shepherd the so-called evidence into channels where it can be used.
Videos are already flooding X, specifically on a channel that X owner Elon Musk, a major Trump backer, has promoted via his America PAC. The community described as “dedicated to sharing potential instances of voter fraud and irregularities that Americans are experiencing in the 2024 Election,” has over 60,000 members, and is already a hub for baseless rumors.
The top posts in that community on Tuesday included videos from political activists known for misleading content: including one from the Heritage Foundation claiming voters were registering with illegal addresses in Maricopa County, Ariz and James O’Keefe, suggesting noncitizens were voting in Philadelphia.
That public depository joins other existing clearinghouses that election deniers claim prove widespread cheating. Election conspiracy theorists, including MyPillow CEO Mike Lindell and activists with True the Vote, offer apps to collect purported evidence of fraud.
Beyond fearmongering, experts expect such content from voters, poll watchers, influencers and operatives to become the stuff of lawsuits contesting the results.
“Election deniers are willing to grab on to the thinnest reed and try to make it a federal case, both figuratively and literally,” said Ben Berwick, head of election law and litigation at Protect Democracy, a nonprofit group focused on protecting the integrity of American elections.
Part of the effort to challenge the results of the 2020 election, and the midterms two years later, Berwick said, was based on affidavits and declarations from eyewitnesses who say they believe they saw something illegal.
“In every instance, it turned out that the person who signed the affidavit misunderstood what they saw, or in some cases, it was just truly made up,” Berwick said. “The lawsuits in 2020 were rejected in part because there was absolutely no evidence for the claims that there was any wrongdoing. I am sure that this time around, there is going to be an effort to come to court with more quote, unquote evidence, right?
“Whatever they can get their hands on, that they can twist to look like some kind of conspiracy or fraud or even error,” he added, “whatever they can get their hands on, they will use.”
Foreign interference and stepped-up security
Foreign actors, meanwhile, are spreading disinformation of their own and amplifying false claims from Americans. On Monday night, the FBI and officials from the National Intelligence Director’s Office and the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency said the U.S. intelligence community has identified two more fake videos produced by Russia designed to undermine Americans’ confidence in the election results.
“Russian influence actors recently posted and amplified an article falsely claiming that U.S. officials across swing states plan to orchestrate election fraud using a range of tactics, such as ballot stuffing and cyber attacks,” the statement said. “Russian influence actors also manufactured and amplified a recent video that falsely depicted an interview with an individual claiming election fraud in Arizona.”
The agencies said the video, which Arizona’s secretary of state had refuted earlier, falsely described a scheme that involved creating fake overseas ballots and changing voter rolls to favor Democrat Kamala Harris.
The Secret Service also announced Monday that it was installing additional fencing around the White House, the Naval Observatory — Harris’ official residence as vice president — and the Palm Beach County, Florida, Convention Center, where Trump plans to speak on election night.
Twenty states also placed about 250 National Guard troops on active duty so they could be available for election support. The troops are mostly activated when needed for cyber support, law enforcement or general support.
In Arizona on election eve, Liewer, the Maricopa County deputy elections director, said she still hopes for the best.
“Tomorrow is what we work so hard for. It’s that voters can come and cast a ballot in this election. Everything we do is for that,” she said. “That’s what motivates us, to ensure that that’s done fairly and transparently. That is what guides us.”
This article was originally published on NBCNews.com
