Vice President Kamala Harris’ ascension to the top of the Democratic ticket has forced former President Donald Trump to direct considerably more resources to the lone state his campaign is playing defense in this year: North Carolina.
Since the beginning of August, Trump’s campaign and his joint fundraising committees have spent at least $7.4 million on ads in the Tar Heel state, according to AdImpact tracking. That’s about $3 million more than Harris and her joint fundraising committees have spent over the same period. It’s the most money the Trump team has spent on ads in any swing state since the beginning of the month, narrowly edging out Pennsylvania.
Total pro-Trump spending in the state tops $11.2 million over that time, while pro-Harris spending clocked in at about $7.6 million, according to AdImpact tracking.
Of course, with two major media markets surrounding Charlotte and Raleigh, North Carolina isn’t a cheap state to advertise in. And other outside groups backing Trump have spent more in other battleground states, making it less necessary for the Trump team to dedicate resources there.
But given that North Carolina is the only major swing state that both parties are actively contesting this cycle that Trump won in 2016 and 2020, the Harris team sees the influx of spending and attention here as proof that their GOP rivals are increasingly nervous about keeping the state’s 16 electoral votes in its column.
“They’re right to be worried,” Dan Kanninen, Harris’ battleground states director, told NBC News, noting that Trump’s 1.3 percentage point win in North Carolina in 2020 was the narrowest of the states he carried. “I think that they know it’s a state that can turn blue this time around, and they must feel like they have to win it to have a path back to the White House. We also feel that North Carolina is imperative and an incredibly important state for us.”
“It very well could be a decisive state,” he added, “There are six or seven places that are just really, really tight. And so for me, North Carolina matters as much as any of them. … The Trump campaign clearly sees that as well, and that’s probably why they’re concerned.”
But Brian Hughes, a senior adviser to Trump’s campaign, said the campaign’s increased investment in North Carolina shouldn’t be viewed as anything out of the ordinary.
“Our investments in North Carolina reflect what we have always said,” he said. “We will take the fight to the battleground states and we will win.”
Candidate visits to the state are ramping up, too. On Wednesday, Trump headlined his second major event in the state within the past week, traveling with his running mate, Sen. JD Vance of Ohio, to Asheboro to deliver an address on national security. During his rally, Trump said his campaign’s “primary focus is not to get out the vote, it’s to make sure they don’t cheat. Because we have all the votes we’ll need.”
That trip came a week after Trump stopped in Asheville for a speech billed as an economic policy address. Vance also had separate North Carolina events that were postponed earlier this month because of weather conditions.
“They say it’s the most important subject,” Trump said during his economic address last week. “I think crime is right there. I think the border is right there, personally. We have a lot of important subjects, because our country has become a third-world nation.”
Harris delivered a major economic policy address in Raleigh on Friday.
“Two days ago, Donald Trump was here in North Carolina,” she said. “He said he was going to talk about the economy. I think you all watched. You know what I’m about to say, but he offered no serious plans to reduce costs for middle-class families, no plan to expand access to housing or health care. And that, actually, I think for most of us, was not surprising, because we already know his plans. We know the Project 2025 agenda.”
Polling shows a race that has shifted dramatically in Harris’ favor in North Carolina since President Joe Biden dropped out last month, but is still neck-and-neck between the two major party nominees. A New York Times/Siena College survey of likely voters this month found Harris leading within the margin of error in the state, both in a head-to-head matchup with Trump and in a five-way contest that included third-party candidates.
And a poll from the Cook Political Report with Amy Walter showed Harris up 2 points over Trump in a multicandidate poll of North Carolina, a 10-point swing from a May survey of the Biden-Trump matchup there.
Harris also fared better in North Carolina than Nevada and Georgia — two states Biden carried in 2020 — in the NYT/Siena and Cook surveys.
“I have that 2008 feeling,” North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper told NBC News’ Tom Llamas, pointing to Barack Obama’s win in the state. “We are the offensive state. They’re going to protect everything they want in 2020. This is the one state they want to get. It was their closest loss in 2020. She can win North Carolina, because people are excited.”
The Trump campaign’s influx of new spending comes as it spent relatively little across the battleground map until the past month. In North Carolina, Biden, Harris and their joint fundraising groups spent $12.8 million in advertising from the start of 2024 through the end of July, while Trump and his joint committees spent under $200,000, according to AdImpact. More broadly, pro-Trump groups spent a combined $1.1 million versus $13.5 million from pro-Democratic groups.
One Trump ally, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss the recent influx of spending, described it as “smart” and “prophylactic.”
North Carolina “is hard for a Democrat to win but you still have to make a play there, and it will be within a few points,” this person said.
Democrats started placing a heavy emphasis on North Carolina much earlier in the year, given that it was the one swing state they felt they had a chance to flip. Harris herself has made seven visits to the state this year, her campaign said, adding that it has opened 23 offices across the state and fields a team of more than 170 staffers. In 2020, Biden didn’t visit the state until September.
Additionally, the campaign said it’s seen a large increase in volunteer sign-ups since Harris’ ascension. A Trump campaign official, meanwhile, said their state operation so far includes 65 paid staff, more than 50 aligned campaign offices and north of 150 paid canvassers working for allied organizations.
Broadly, Democrats see an influx of young Americans — particularly around the Research Triangle anchored by Raleigh — and shifting demographics in the state as favorable to their candidates. They also point to down-ballot candidates like Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson, a right-wing Trump acolyte who is running for governor, as beneficial to their cause and messaging in-state.
“We’ve seen about 4% population growth overall since 2020, and the folks who are moving into the state, who are registering to vote, generally, those trends would favor the vice president,” said a Harris campaign official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity.
Still, Republicans have a long track record of success in winning statewide federal races. At the presidential level, Obama is the only Democrat to win the state over the past 40 years. Biden came the closest of anyone else in 2020.
“I wouldn’t read too much into it,” Jonathan Felts, a longtime North Carolina Republican operative who is leading a pro-Robinson super PAC, said in a text message of the Trump campaign influx of new spending there. “NC was always going to be one of the top seven battleground states and require [Republicans] to spend some money. And sure, decapitating the top of their ticket and installing Harris has helped diminish the enthusiasm gap for Democrats, but Harris still doesn’t provide NC Democrats with a better message for rural North Carolinians.”
“This race might have tightened after Democrats shuffled their deck chairs, but here in NC, whether it’s the HMS Biden or the HMS Harris, it’s still gonna be a sinking ship on Election Day,” he added. “Harris doesn’t inspire rural voters to go vote the way Obama did when he had that huge 0.32% victory in ’08 in NC.”
Trump has also elevated several veterans of North Carolina races to his national team: Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Whatley formerly led the North Carolina state party, while RNC co-chair Lara Trump also hails from the state. A major Republican donor with ties to Trump said the party wouldn’t let the state slip from its grasp.
“The polling is slipping in North Carolina, but I can’t imagine that — look, the RNC is basically headed by North Carolina, with Whatley and Lara Trump,” said the donor, who was granted anonymity to speak candidly. “I can’t see either of them being willing to sacrifice North Carolina.”
The Trump ads airing in North Carolina attack Harris on immigration, criticizing her as the Biden administration’s “border czar” and describing her as “failed, weak, dangerously liberal,” even saying she has “blood on her hands.”
Harris campaign ads have sought to boost her record on immigration and crime and present voters with her biography.
“Kamala Harris has spent decades fighting violent crime,” one ad begins. “As a border state prosecutor, she took on drug cartels and jailed gang members for smuggling weapons and drugs across the border. As vice president, she backed the toughest border control bill in decades.”
Kanninen, who led Hillary Clinton’s 2016 campaign in North Carolina, said Harris’ focus on the state will only further increase as the election nears.
“We’ve been expecting a close race in the Tar Heel state,” he said. “We’ve been building a campaign all year designed to win a close race.”
This article was originally published on NBCNews.com
